赢家娱乐城

【题 目】	Opportunities swept away: How do floods affect children’s educational outcomes in rural China?
【主 讲】	史新杰（浙江大学 公共管理赢家娱乐城 赢家娱乐城 ，研究员）
【时 间】	2025年5月28日 星期三 14:00-15:30
【地 点】	赢家娱乐城app 博纳楼二层第二会议室

  摘 要：The frequency of natural disasters has surged globally in recent years. However, the existing literature paid limited attention to the role of government and individual disaster response strategies on shaping human capital outcomes in disaster-affected populations. This paper uses the 1998 nationwide floods in China as a quasi-natural experiment to estimate the loss of educational opportunities for rural children exposed to natural disasters. By matching county-level precipitation anomaly data with the 2010 census data, the difference-in-difference analysis showed that individuals in early life stages (ages 7-15) in rural areas exposed to stronger floods experienced a significant reduction in educational opportunities. This negative impact of the 1998 China floods on educational opportunities was more pronounced among females and impeded intergenerational mobility in rural areas. The mechanism behind this finding is twofold. First, the impact of flooding increased the burden on rural households and reduced their investment in their children’s education, with this deprivation effect being particularly pronounced in areas more dependent on the primary sector. Second, Due to early experiences of flooding, there is an increased likelihood of parents migrating to cities for work. While the potential increase in income may have positive effects, the negative impact of leaving children behind tends to dominate. However, post-disaster investment in education from the government helped mitigate the long-term negative impacts of the floods to some extent. This paper minimizes estimation bias caused by population migration and re-emphasizes the negative impacts of natural disasters on human capital accumulation, elucidating the different response behaviors of the government and farm households, contributing to understanding the impact of different actors’ responses to natural disasters on the long-term human capital accumulation of the offspring, providing a reference for post-disaster relief efforts in countries or regions in transition.

  主讲人简介：史新杰，浙江大学公共管理赢家娱乐城 、中国农村发展研究院和共享与发展研究院研究员。研究重点关注共同富裕背景下农村经济社会转型发展的一系列议题，在《经济研究》、《管理世界》、Journal of Health Economics、Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization等刊物发表学术论文40余篇，出版专著/教材2部。主持国家自然科学基金等国家和省部级省部级课题十余项。荣获第九届“中国农村发展研究奖”、“钱学森城市学金奖”提名奖、浙江省经济学会 2023 年度优秀成果一等奖、浙江第二十二届“哲学社会科学优秀成果奖”二等奖和青年奖。入选国家级青年人才、浙江省高层次人才特殊支持计划青年人才、浙江省之江青年拔尖人才。